The rise of the machines

The big story in technology today is that IBM's Watson computer beat two human champions on Jeopardy last night (see NY Times story and analysis, and WSJ story and analysis). The upshot of this event is not just a game show win, but a demonstration that computers have reached the level of acting as effective expert systems. This means computers could take over a number of routine question and answer task. They could also backstop existing tasks, such as medical diagnosis.

But here is another -- as important if not more so -- story from the Economist about 3D printing (Print me a Stradivarius):

It works like this. First you call up a blueprint on your computer screen and tinker with its shape and colour where necessary. Then you press print. A machine nearby whirrs into life and builds up the object gradually, either by depositing material from a nozzle, or by selectively solidifying a thin layer of plastic or metal dust using tiny drops of glue or a tightly focused beam. Products are thus built up by progressively adding material, one layer at a time: hence the technology's other name, additive manufacturing. Eventually the object in question--a spare part for your car, a lampshade, a violin--pops out. The beauty of the technology is that it does not need to happen in a factory. Small items can be made by a machine like a desktop printer, in the corner of an office, a shop or even a house; big items--bicycle frames, panels for cars, aircraft parts--need a larger machine, and a bit more space.

These technological advances raise serious concerns about what the economy will look like in the future. Which activities will be handle by machines and which by humans? Or, but more bluntly, will machines replace humans?

I am generally optimistic (and partly excited) about these developments. I agree with John Seely Brown quote in the NY Times, "The essence of being human involves asking questions, not answering them." The extent to which the rise of tools such as Watson help us ask more interesting questions, the better humankind will be. The extent to which tools like 3D printing help us satisfy material needs, the better mankind will be. The result will be a truly "new economy."

In this new economy, there is a wealth of intangible assets to be created and mined. How that is done (i.e. how we organize "work" and "jobs") is a social organizational issue. How markets develop to allocate resources (inputs and outputs of that work process) is a political economy issue. Thus, the real challenges we face are social - not technological. The structure and nature of the economy is (and has been) constantly changing. Understanding, directing and ultimately coping with those changes is task we all face.

So, let the future begin.