Earlier I commented on the expectations game in economic data. Well, this morning's news from BLS on the November employment data should be a big shock to the system -- especially the political system. BLS reports that the unemployment rate went down to 10%, and the number of jobs lost was "essentially unchanged" at only 11,000. Part of the story is that the size of the civilian labor force fell slightly and the number of people not in the labor force grew slightly. But the total number of employed persons rose and the number of unemployed actually dropped.
The number of involuntary underemployed (part time for economic reasons) and those part time because of slack work also both declined. I would not put too much emphasis on a single month's numbers -- positive or negative. But the trend (as the chart below shows) is in the right direction. Involuntary underemployment essentially peaked in March.
The BLS release had one other shocker, however. As the New York Times also notes, "the government also significantly revised September and October numbers. September was adjusted to show a loss of 139,000 jobs instead of 219,000, and October 111,000 instead of 190,000." The release gave no reason for the revision. That is a very large change in the data and one that needs at least some explanation.
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