This morning's unemployment numbers from BLS were as bad if not worse than last month, even though the unemployment rate remained unchanged. Employment loss in June was 62,000. And May's revised job loss was put at also 62,000 -- a dramatic increase from the loss of 49,000 originally reported. This is worse than expected. According to the Wall Street Journal, "Wall Street economists had expected an unemployment rate of 5.4% and a decrease of 55,000 payrolls jobs for June."
The other part is our silent employment problem (see earlier posting). The involuntary underemployed (part-time for economic reasons) continued to rise by 183,000.
And the worse may be yet to come. As the New York Times reports:
Goldman Sachs forecasts that the unemployment rate will peak at 6.4 percent late in 2009 before the picture improves, meaning that the painful process of shedding jobs may be only half-way complete.For example, the June numbers showed a 5,600 increase in motor vehicle employment. Given the recent auto sales figures, that is unlikely to continue. On the other hand, professional services, education, health care and leisure/hospitality employment were all up (over 16,000 in bars and restaurants).
Of course, Wall Street had a completely different take --
Today's Markets - WSJ.com:
Maybe they think the numbers will force the Fed to once again lower interest rates?
But the bounce may not last. While the market was up at the opening, it headed back down and appears to be gyrating as we speak.