The National Bureau of Economic Research probably won't say this for months. But why wait? The U.S. economy fell into recession sometime in January.
The NBER -- a nonprofit organization of mostly academic economists -- puts official dates on when recessions begin and end. It looks at a wide range of data, including income growth, industrial production and gross domestic product. Few pieces of data are more important than the Labor Department's monthly payroll employment report, which shows the job market started contracting around the beginning of the year.
The NBER calls the labor market the "broadest monthly indicator" for the economy. The last recession -- which the NBER says began in March 2001 -- commenced just as a succession of payroll employment declines were setting in. The same goes for the recession that began in July 1990.
Payrolls contracted by 22,000 in January and 63,000 in February. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires expect the Labor Department to report today payrolls contracted 60,000 in March.
You heard it here ... second.
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