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February 1, 2008
The jobs numbers - the involuntary part time
As you can expect, most economists were surprised at this morning's jobs numbers showing a net decline in nonfarm payrolls of 14,000 17,000 -- the first actual decline since August 2003. According to the Wall Street Journal (Payrolls Unexpectedly Decline, Increasing Odds of Recession - WSJ.com):
Wall Street economists had expected a much sturdier 75,000 rise in payrolls last month. Jobless claims, after all, hovered near 300,000 for much of January, well below December levels. And a report released Wednesday from ADP and Macroeconomic Advisers that attempts to mirror the jobs report signaled 130,000 private-sector jobs were created last month.
Lost in the headlines is another piece of bad news: the number of workers who are part-time for economic reasons continued to grow. As I've noted before, the growth of involuntary part time workers is a hidden factor in economic downturns in the I-Cubed Economy. So hidden that policymakers and journalists don't even talk about it -- or recognize that it is there. But in January 2008, a net 100,000 additional workers joined the ranks of the involuntarily underemployed. That should be at least as worrisome as the net 14,000 17,000 unemployed.
Posted by Ken Jarboe at February 1, 2008 9:27 AM
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