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September 12, 2005
Two additional views on New Orleans
Two somewhat opposing views on the future of New Orleans.
George Friedman runs a respected business intelligence company, Stratfor and weights in with "New Orleans: A Geopolitical Prize":
Katrina has taken out the port -- not by destroying the facilities, but by rendering the area uninhabited and potentially uninhabitable. That means that even if the Mississippi remains navigable, the absence of a port near the mouth of the river makes the Mississippi enormously less useful than it was. For these reasons, the United States has lost not only its biggest port complex, but also the utility of its river transport system -- the foundation of the entire American transport system. There are some substitutes, but none with sufficient capacity to solve the problem.
It follows from this that the port will have to be revived and, one would assume, the city as well. The ports around New Orleans are located as far north as they can be and still be accessed by ocean-going vessels. The need for ships to be able to pass each other in the waterways, which narrow to the north, adds to the problem. Besides, the Highway 190 bridge in Baton Rouge blocks the river going north. New Orleans is where it is for a reason: The United States needs a city right there.
Joel Garreau is a Washington Post reporter and editor and author of a fascinating study of urban areas Edge City: Life on the New Frontier. He argues "A Sad Truth: Cities Aren't Forever":
Certainly, as long as the Mississippi River stays within its manmade banks, there will be a need for the almost 200 miles of ports near its mouth. But ports no longer require legions of workers. In the 21st century, a thriving port is not the same thing as a thriving city, as demonstrated from Oakland to Norfolk. The city of New Orleans has for years resembled Venice -- a beloved tourist attraction but not a driver of global trade.
I think I have to side with Garreau on this one. Wholesale trade alone will not be enough to rebuild New Orleans to the size it was before.
But, the city can be more than a tourist attraction -- as important as that is. My key indicator will be how quickly Tulane University recovers. For the Fall semester, Tulane students will be dispersed across the nation. How many return (either in January if that is possible or next Fall) will determine New Orleans' future as a dynamic creative city.
And how many of them are willing to stay in the Big Easy and rebuild the city will tell me if New Orleans will become a Venice or a Milan - a tourist attraction or a creative city with a rich history.
Posted by Ken Jarboe at September 12, 2005 10:18 AM
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