NEGOTIATING THE DIGITAL DIVIDE

THE GLOBAL DIGITAL DIVIDE:

STRATEGIES FOR SOCIAL RESEARCH

Exploring the Digital Divide:

Charting the Terrain of Technology Access and Opportunity

National Academy of Sciences

Washington, D.C.

May 1-2, 2000

Ernest J. Wilson III

Director

Center for International Development & Conflict Management

University of Maryland

and

Senior Advisor

Global Information Infrastructure Commission

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NEGOTIATING THE DIGITAL DIVIDE

PHYSICAL ACCESS Þ	NO	Provide Infrastructure
if yes		Expand Applications
ß


FINANCIAL ACCESS Þ if yes	NO	Suppliers (Enhance Competition, Promote Investment)
ß		Customers (Grameen; Targeted Subsidies)


COGNITIVE ACCESS Þ	NO	Teach Teachers
if yes		Teach Students
ß		S&T Policies
		Continuous Learning


CONTENT ACCESS Þ	NO	Support Local Content Industries
if yes		Permit Imports
ß		Minimal Content Restrictions


INSTITUTIONAL ACCESS Þ	NO	Capacity Building
if yes		Pairing
ß		Innovations, Reform


PARTICIPATION Þ	NO	Access to Rule-Making Procedures
if yes		Adjudication
ß		Feedback
		Regulatory Hearings

USE.

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EVALUATING COMPETING CLAIMS ABOUT GLOBAL CONVERGENCE OR DIVERGENCE

Optimists:

Macro-Level: Convergence Occurs

Meso-Level: Frictionless Diffusion

Pessimists:

Macro-Level: Divergence Occurs

Meso-Level: High Friction

Embedded:

Macro-Level: High Variability, Likely Divergence

Meso-Level: High Variability, Friction Likely, Path Dependence, Politics Important

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DEFINITIONS OF KEY CONCEPTS

GLOBAL DIGITAL DIVIDE:

"A substantial symmetry in the distribution and effective use of information and communication resources between two or more populations. This results in differential access to information and communications services."

EFFECTIVE ICT ACCESS:

PHYSICAL ACCESS
FINANCIAL ACCESS
COGNITIVE ACCESS
CONTENT ACCESS
INSTITUTIONAL ACCESS
PARTICIPATION ACCESS

______________________________________________

EMBEDDED ACCESS

APPLICATIONS

HARDWARE

SOFTWARE

SYSTEM NETWORK

SYSTEMS MANAGEMENT

TRAINING

INFRASTRUCTURE

EDUCATION

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EVIDENCE ON ICT DIFFUSION:

In General, Low Quality and Quantity
Data Sources: World Bank, UNDP, ITU, WITS
Latest Study: "Are Poor Countries Losing the Information Revolution?" F. Rodriguez and E. Wilson for the World Bank
MACRO: For a basket of ICT applications (Fax, Internet Hosts, PCS, Mobile Phones, Televisions) Rodriguez & Wilson find that OECD countries are increasing their use of these ICTs by 23% annually. Non-OECD countries increasing by 18% annually.
MESO: Policy and Institutional Friction, Path Dependency and Variability are High.

THE GLOBAL CONTEXT: EVIDENCE OF GENERAL ECONOMIC INEQUALITY TRENDS

No Evidence of Convergence of Global Economic Inequality among Nations
Some Evidence of Growing Domestic Inequalities in U.S., UK, China, Hungary and other LDCs.

CONCLUSION:

Optimist, Pessimist assumptions are challenged
"Embedded" assumptions hold up best, i.e., the diffusion patterns of ICTs tend to reflect the structural characteristics of the societies in which they are embedded, and the policies and programs set in place to influence them
Policy Implications:

Assume worsening of the gap in the short to medium term, ceteris paribus;

Design and interventions to expand diffusion, economic growth AND social equity

Research needs to follow both ëprocessí and ëstructuralí access

NEXT STEPS:

NEEDED: A major NAS study
DEFINE CONCEPTS, MODELS, EVIDENCE CAREFULLY
RESEARCH DESIGN:

Incorporate international into each chapter
Separate chapter(s) on international dimension

SUBSTANTIVELY:

Large ëNí study of Global Digital Divide
Small ëNí study, cross national using common analytic framework

CREATE VIRTUAL, WEB-BASED CENTER TO MONITOR, ANALYZE AND REPORT ON GLOBAL DIGITAL DIVIDE

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KEY ASSUMPTIONS, SCENARIOS:

(OR, "SO WHAT?")

SCENARIO NO. ONE:

FULL SCALE SOCIAL TRANSFORMATION

The world is on the threshold of broad, deep and accelerating structural transition from an industrial to a post-industrial, Information Society. Therefore, these asymmetries are important and require sustained and serious interventions.

SCENARIO NO. TWO:

TURBULENCE BUT NO TRANSFORMATION

The world is experiencing turbulence in one sector. That sector is important, but the resulting asymmetries are no more severe than other ëgapsí in education, health, etc.